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近年来，交通拥堵在中国各个城市尤其是大城市日益严重，停车困难、空气污染和噪声等问题也随之出现。目前已有的措施如限制购车、限制出行均收效甚微。为解决上述问题，北京市交通运输委员会和市环保局将制定相关政策收取交通拥堵费用。本文采用系统动力学仿真的方法对拥堵收费的积极影响和消极影响进行了预测；探讨了城市交通拥堵的影响因素和受影响因素；使用 VENSIM PLE软件进行系统动力学仿真实验，并在此基础上进行数据分析，得出了五种不同经济水平的人们对四种不同水平的拥堵费的反应以及在不同实施阶段对拥堵费的影响。
论文摘要
实施交通拥堵收费是近年来我国各大城市考虑采用的一种解决日益严重的交通拥堵问题的方法。本文的目的是对政策的效果和影响进行全面的预测和分析。基于人均收入、人口、国内生产总值、私家车拥有量和空气中二氧化硫含量等五个主要因素，建立了交通拥堵收费的系统动力学模型。在模型中，人口损失衡量的是人们对政策的承受程度，私家车出行的数量衡量的是政策效果。结果表明，在该方案稳定实施后，私家车出行量将显著下降并保持下降趋势。这表明，交通拥堵收费政策能够有效地控制交通拥堵，且不会对汽车需求产生显著影响。此外，高通行费对低收入人群的负面影响较大，因此有必要确定通行费的合理范围。
基于交通拥堵费的影响以及各因素之间的联系的系统因果关系图
交通拥堵定价系统流程图
AbstractImplementing congestion charges is a method that large cities in China are considering to employ as a solution to the growing traffic congestion problem in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to make a comprehensive prediction and analysis of the effect and impact of the policy. The system dynamics model of traffic congestion charge is established based on five main factors, such as per capita income, population, GDP, private car ownership and air sulfur dioxide content. In the model, the population loss measures peoples’ bearing of the policy and the amount of private car travel measures policy effects. The results show that after the implementation of the scheme is stable, private car travel volumes will decrease significantly and keep growing. This shows that congestion charging scheme can effectively control congestion, and will not have a significant impact on car demand. In addition, the high toll price will have a significantly negative impact on the low-income population, so it is vital that a moderate congestion toll price is fixed.原文信息
Congestion Charges in Mega Cities: On Affection and Effectiveness
Yanhong Yuan, Guomin Li, Rongxia Zhang, Wei Li, Qingqing Fan
JOURNALOFENVIRONMENTALACCOUNTINGANDMANAGEMENT
pp.41-54|DOI:10.5890/JEAM..08.001
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JournalofEnvironmental
AccountingandManagement
《环境核算与管理》
ISSN2325-6192(Print)
ISSN2325-6206(Online)
CN10-1358/X
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