ZEROHEDGE
One of the reasons for the sharply hawkish response to yesterday"s FOMC meeting - one which saw both the dollar and yields spike, in the hours ahead of Powell"s press conference, Wall Street consensus quickly shifted with many expecting the Fed to announce some form of permanent repo facility or restart of POMO (or QE for those who call a spade a spade) to push reserves back to a level where the funding market is stable. This, as we showed with the following chart, would require some $400 billion in new reserves for the FF-IOER spread to normalize.
对昨日FOMC会议做出强硬回应的原因之一，其中一个见证了美元和收益率的飙升，在鲍威尔新闻发布会前的几个小时，华尔街的共识迅速转变，许多人预计美联储将宣布某种形式的永久性回购工具，或重启永久性公开市场操作(直言不讳者称为QE)，将外汇储备推回到融资市场稳定的水平。正如我们在下面的图表中所示，这将需要大约4000亿美元的新储备，以使联邦基金利率(FF)与超额准本金利率(IOER)息差正常化。
To the disappointment of many, Powell did not do that, and instead, the FOMC realigned both interest on excess reserves (IOER) and the reverse repo (RRP) rate lower by 5bp, resulting in 30bp cuts to both rates. Powell also noted during his press conference that the Fed would use temporary open market operations (OMOs) “for the foreseeable future” to address pressures in funding markets.
令许多人失望的是，鲍威尔没有这么做，相反，联邦公开市场委员会将超额准备金利率(IOER)和反向回购利率(RRP)都下调了5个基点，导致这两个利率都下调了30个基点。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上还指出，美联储将在“可预见的未来”使用临时公开市场操作(OMOs)来应对融资市场的压力。
However, and the reason why stocks shot up just before 3pm ET, is that that"s when Powell added that “it’s possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet, earlier than we thought. ... We’ll be looking at this carefully in coming days and taking it up at the next meeting” in late October. Said otherwise, the Fed may not have announcer QE4 yesterday, but it will likely announce it in the very near future.
然而，股市在美国东部时间下午3点前暴涨的原因是，鲍威尔补充说，“我们可能需要恢复资产负债表的有机增长，比我们想象的要早。我们将在未来几天仔细研究这个问题，并在10月底的下次会议上讨论。否则，美联储可能不会在昨天宣布QE4，但它很可能在不久的将来宣布QE4。
Sure enough, as Goldman wrote in its FOMC post-mortem,"we took this as a fairly strong hint and now expect the Fed to resume trend growth of its balance sheet in November with permanent OMOs. It is possible that the FOMC will take that opportunity to also reach a final decision on possibly shortening the maturity composition of its purchases, which it discussed at its May meeting."
果然，正如高盛在其联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)事后报告中所写的那样，“我们把这视为一个相当有力的暗示，现在预计美联储将在11月通过永久性的公开市场操作恢复其资产负债表的趋势增长。”联邦公开市场委员会也有可能利用这个机会，就可能缩短其购买债券的期限构成做出最终决定。联邦公开市场委员会在5月份的会议上讨论了这一问题。”
So what will the Fed"s restart of QE POMO (some analysts, such as Morgan Stanley"s Matt Hornbach are very sensitive not to call the return of POMO as QE even though both are effectively the monetization of US Treasurys and the US budget deficit) look like?
那么，美联储重启量化宽松宽松政策(一些分析师，如摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的马特•霍恩巴赫(Matt Hornbach)，非常敏感地不把宽松政策的回归称为量化宽松，尽管这实际上是美国国债和预算赤字的货币化会是什么样子?
In the chart below, Goldman summarizes its projections of the Fed’s future gross Treasury purchases. The blue bars show reinvestment of maturing UST, which occur via add-on Treasury auctions. The red bars show reinvestment of maturing MBS, which occur via the secondary market.
在下面的图表中，高盛总结了它对美联储未来国债购买总额的预测。蓝色条形图显示的是即将到期的科大的再投资，这些再投资是通过附加国债拍卖进行的。红色条形图显示的是到期的MBS的再投资，这是通过二级市场进行的。
The grey bars are where things get fun as they show permanent OMOs to support trend growth of the Fed’s balance sheet, which will occur via intervention of the Fed"s markets desk in the secondary market.
灰色条线是有趣的地方，因为它们显示出永久性的公开市场操作来支持美联储资产负债表的趋势增长，这将通过美联储二级市场市场部门的干预来实现。
Here, similar to Bank of America, Goldman assumesa roughly $15bn/month rate of permanent OMOs, enough to support trend growth of the balance sheet plus some additional padding over the first two years to increase the size of thebalance sheet by $150bn, restoring the reserve buffer and eliminating the current need for temporary OMOs.
这里,类似于美国银行、高盛承担约150亿美元/月的永久公开市场操作,足以支持在头两年资产负债表的趋势增长加上一些额外的填充，从而将资产负债表规模扩大1500亿美元,恢复保护区缓冲区和消除当前需要临时公开市场操作。
That strategy would result inbalance sheet growth of roughly $180bn/year and net UST purchases by the Fed (the sum of the red and grey bars) of roughly $375bn/year over the next couple of years.
这一策略将导致资产负债表在未来几年每年增长约1800亿美元，而美联储的净购买量(红条和灰条之和)将达到每年约3750亿美元。
And so, in just two months QE... pardon the Fed"s open market purchases of Treasurys, will return after a 5 years hiatus. Just don"t call it QE, whatever you do.
因此，在短短两个月的量化宽松政策中……美联储公开市场购买美国国债的行为，将在5年后恢复。无论你做什么，都不要称之为量化宽松。
关注我们：hefennews
Connecting
